Analysis:
On April the 28th 2010 Inter Milan knocked out FC Barcelona from the UEFA Champions League after losing 1-0 on the Camp Nou due to their 3-1 reserve balance from the first leg of the tie. Inter coach José Mourinho and not the players was at center of the attention. Mourinho had almost singlehandedly been FC Barcelona by his masterful strategy which was defining for the outcome and not the actual performance of the players on the pitch or at least only to the extent that they carried the orders of their boss.
However, looking a bit closer at the setup one might conclude that it is not the surprising at all that a team like Inter makes it to the final. With or without Mourinho on the bench.
A number of pivotal events took place during the 1990s in order to shape the game of today with the results of the current day.
1992-1993 was the inaugural season of the UEFA Champions League taking over from the European Cup and with a restructuring of the finances making it a much more profitable tournament.
December 1995 saw the Bosman ruling which would see a profound effect on the European football landscape starting with the 1996/97 season. (For more about the Bosman ruling click here)
1997/98 saw the introduction of runners up in the national leagues being allowed into the holy land of the Champions League. A system which would later be further expanded so the biggest leagues will now have upto 4 teams participating each year.
The consulting firm and auditing company Deloitte each year publishes a list over the richest clubs in Europe. The Deloitte money league. This annual list has been published since the 2004/05 season. See more in the wikipedia about the previous rankings.
Below are the winners and the runners up of the UEFA Champions League since the Bosman ruling.
1996–97 GER Borussia Dortmund 3–1 Juventus ITA
1997–98 ESP Real Madrid 1–0 Juventus ITA
1998–99 ENG Manchester United 2–1 FC Bayern GER
1999–2000 ESP Real Madrid 3–0 Valencia ESP
2000–01 GER Bayern Munich 1–1 Valencia ESP
2001–02 ESP Real Madrid 2–1 Leverkusen GER
2002–03 ITA AC Milan 0–0 Juventus ITA
2003–04 POR Porto 3–0 Monaco FRA
2004–05 ENG Liverpool 3–3 AC Milan ITA
2005–06 ESP FC Barcelona 2–1 Arsenal ENG
2006–07 ITA AC Milan 2–1 Liverpool ENG
2007–08 ENG Manchester United 1–1 Chelsea ENG
2008–09 ESP FC Barcelona 2–0 Man United ENG
2009-10 ITA FC Inter X-X FC Bayern GER
Below is the Deloitte Moneylist for the season 2008/09. Amounts are in millions Euros.
1 Real Madrid 401.4
2 FC Barcelona 365.9
3 Manchester Utd 327.0
4 Bayern Munich 289.5
5 Arsenal 263.0
6 Chelsea 242.3
7 Liverpool 217.0
8 Juventus 203.2
9 Inter FC 196.5
10 AC Milan 196.5
11 Hamburger SV 146.7
12 AS Roma 146.4
13 Olympique Lyon 139.6
14 Olymp Marseille 133.2
15 Tottenham H 132.7
16 Schalke 04 124.5
17 Werder Bremen 114.7
18 Borussia Dortmund 103.5
19 Manchester City 102.2
20 Newcastle United 101.0
Below are the aggregated numbers for the seasons 2004/05 , 05/06, 06/07, 07/08, 08/09 for the top 10 clubs. Previous year’s position in parenthesis.
1. Real Madrid 401.4 365.8 351.8 (1) 292.2 (1) 275.7 (1)
2. Manchester Utd 327 324.8 315.4 (2) 242.6 (4) 246.4 (2)
3. FC Barcelona 365.9 308.8 291.1 (3) 259.1 (2) 207.9 (6)
4. Bayern Munich 289.5 295.3 223.7 (7) 204.7 (8) 189.5 (7)
5. Chelsea FC 242 268.9 284.4 (4) 221.0 (6) 220.8 (5)
6. Arsenal FC 263 264.4 264.2 (5) 177.4 (9) 171.3 (10)
7. Liverpool 217 210.9 202.1 (8) 176.0 (10) 181.2 (8)
8. AS Milan 196.5 209.5 227.7 (6) 238.7 (5) 234.0 (3)
9. AS Roma 146.4 (12)175.4 157.7 (10) 127.0 (12) 131.8 (11)
10. Inter 196.5 (9) 172.9 (10)195.4 (9) 206.6 (7) 177.2 (9)
So out of the 10 richest clubs in Europe only Juventus has not been permanently on the top 10 list since its’ inauguration in 2004/05. AS Roma is on the list instead but over time as the relegation to Serie B is cancelled out Juventus will be club present among the 10 big.
So for the past 14 season since the Bosman ruling and with the addition of the new format for Champions League + the huge revenue growth and thereby income for the participating clubs 1 club which is not on the current top 20 list has won. FC Porto in the season 2003/04. A further three clubs have made it to the final Valencia, Monaco, and Bayer Leverkusen. Valencia has figured on the top 20 list from time to time though. For the past 6 seasons only top 10 clubs have made the final. The only 2 top 10 Deloitte clubs not making the final within the past 6 seasons are Juventus (AS Roma) and Real Madrid.
To explain the victory of FC Porto is not difficult. Randomness. Due to the format of the tournament there will from time to time be an upset winner but increasingly seldom. To have one surprise winner in 14 years is hardly a testament to great chances for the outsider. To see an Inter vs. Bayern final is however totally in line with what one would expect.
Money cannot buy you success but money can buy you the chance to have success. Approximately a 10% chance to win to be exact. 9 big clubs get 10% chance each and the occasional outsider whether it being Lyon, Roma, Porto or Monaco gets the last ticket in the lottery. If or when Juventus gets restored to former glory the chance will decrease to 9% for each of the top 10 clubs and a 9% for a surprise winner.
Could Mancini have done it ? Probably. Could Pellegrini have done it ? Probably. At least with the same probability as any of the other coaches.
There seems to be no correlation between team and success and coach and success among the top 10 clubs. Otherwise there would have been many more repeat wins. No true dynasties dominating have managed to establish themselves which is probably to the benefit of the tournament. Sports lives of the randomness and the unpredictability of the outcome (as do the bookmakers and betting houses).
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